Episode 6: Another January 6th?

Catherine Osborn on Brazil’s Election & Political Violence

Brazilians head to the polls Sunday to elect their next president and other key legislators in Brazil’s general election. If neither presidential candidate – Brazil’s current right wing president Jair Bolsonaro or Brazil’s former left wing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – wins a majority of the vote, a runoff election will take place on October 30th. Election watchers worry Bolsonaro will contest the election results should he lose, prompting a violent insurrection which might look even worse than the January 6th protests in the US.

What is the likelihood Bolsonaro and his supporters will stage a coup-like event in Brazil? And, how has the Brazilian right been inspired or influenced by the events of January 6th? Is America’s example, for good and bad, really that powerful in Brazil? Foreign Policy’s Catherine Osborn joins the Eurasia Group Foundation’s Mark Hannah to dig into all of this and more as the world awaits the election results of the Western hemisphere's second largest democracy.

Catherine Osborn is the writer of Foreign Policy’s weekly Latin America Brief. She is a print and radio journalist based in Rio de Janeiro.

This podcast episode includes references to the Eurasia Group Foundation, now known as the Institute for Global Affairs.

Archival:

“Brazil elections: Crowds rally for former President Lula,” (Al Jazeera English, August 21, 2022)
“'There's something strange going on': Some fear a coup in Brazil,” (CNN, August 17, 2022)
“‘Brazil on Fire’: Lula Launches Campaign to Unseat Bolsonaro & End His Authoritarian Rule,” (Democracy Now!, August 18, 2022)
“Domestic Terrorism on Capitol Hill | The View,” (The View, January 7, 2021)
“Chaos in Washington as Trump supporters storm Capitol and force lockdown of Congress - BBC News,” (BBC News, January 6, 2021)
“The Jan. 6 insurrection, 1 year later | PBS NewsHour presents,” (PBS NewsHour, January 8, 2022)
“Brazil presidential election: army celebrates Bolsonaro's victory,” (FRANCE 24 English, October 29, 2018)
“Bolsonaro mixes campaign politics, military displays on Brazil bicentennial • FRANCE 24 English,” (FRANC 24 English, September 8, 2022)

Transcript:

CATHERINE OSBORN: While all the tensions surrounding this election in Brazil are certainly an example of modern, contemporary democratic backsliding, it's also a big example of folks who have pushed back and have said, “Whoa. We don't want to go in this direction anymore.” And in that way, the United States and Brazil are parallel.

MARK HANNAH: Welcome to None of the Above, a podcast of the Eurasia Group Foundation. My name is Mark Hannah. This week we turn to an election in which two deeply divided parties with two very different visions for their country's future vie for control of their government. No matter the results, the global consequences will likely be quite significant. And no, I'm not talking about the United States.

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HANNAH: On October 2, Brazilian voters will go to the polls to choose between the right-wing incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, and left-wing candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, also known simply as Lula, who was himself once Brazil's president. Nowadays, peaceful transition of power within large democracies have become more or less taken as an article of faith. But as the election in Brazil unfolds, the whole world might want to sit up and pay attention to what is occurring there.

OSBORN: Scholars have said Brazil fits into a pattern of democratic backsliding that's underway across the world right now, a pattern which included the United States under Trump in which a leader consolidates control, not through a traditional military coup with tanks in the street, but rather they’re democratically elected, and then they erode democratic norms and checks. Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil's president, has done this via spreading distrust in the courts and the media. He's made statements which encourage political violence, and he's spread unsubstantiated claims that Brazil's electronic voting machines are unreliable.

HANNAH: That's Catherine Osborn. She's a journalist based in Rio de Janeiro and the author of Foreign Policy’s weekly “Latin America Brief.” For our listeners in the United States and those who have followed US politics for the past few years, some elements of this might sound eerily familiar.

OSBORN: Lula, who is the left-wing candidate, who is leading the polls for this election, is a former president. He was president between 2003 and 2010. He came up through trade union politics. He, at the time, campaigned on making a better life for Brazil's poor. And that's essentially his pitch today.

And then Bolsonaro is a right-wing former Army captain who served in Brazil's Congress for almost 30 years and was for a long time regarded as a fringe figure in Brazilian politics. He became more popular in recent years with the help of social media. He's a big YouTuber. Amid dissatisfaction with Lula's party over a big corruption scandal in the past decade, Bolsonaro's profile rose, and he rose because additionally, Brazil's center right was weak. And so, there was not a strong option on the center right. But he's somebody who really praises Brazil's military dictatorship of 1964 to 1985. It was a period where Brazil grew economically but also closed down the Congress, suppressed dissidents. Hundreds were tortured. But Bolsonaro has sort of lionized it. And so, he has some hard core supporters, and then he has some folks who are social conservatives. And he also has some supporters who used to be voters for the left but have become disillusioned among corruption scandals.

HANNAH: For those keeping track of the parallels between Brazil and the United States, Bolsonaro's meteoric rise came amid widespread disillusionment among Brazilians. But what might happen if this disillusionment is turned against Bolsonaro himself, who continues to lag behind Lula in the polls? What if Jair Bolsonaro's fall is just as sudden as his rise?

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OSBORN: There's quite a lot of speculation that Bolsonaro could stage an event like the January 6th Capitol attack if he loses the election. And unlike in the United States, the military here does not have a history of staying out of politics.

Interlude featuring archival audio

OSBORN: He has said his opponents should be “eliminated.” He has said even this year that it's good to have a bunch of leftists in a group because then when you throw the bomb, it kills all of them. This question about the military and whether they would support Bolsonaro is a potential attempt to illegally stay in power is one that observers have been watching. I've spoken with scholars here who are well-sourced among the top brass of the Brazilian military, and they say the military is split on this. And what's interesting has been seeing strong statements from the United States that have been influential in dissuading, apparently, some of the top generals from trying to embark with Bolsonaro on a potential self-coup attempt.

HANNAH: Nothing is certain, of course. Despite Lula's lead, Bolsonaro has many ardent supporters. And if neither candidate gets a clear majority in the first round of voting, then the election will go into a runoff. As for how this might all shake out and whether events which follow Brazil's election might mirror the events that followed the United States election, well, Catherine has some of her own predictions.

OSBORN: On these basic questions of survival: my salary—am I getting my welfare benefits? If there's a public health emergency, how am I going to be safe? Enough voters, and especially working class voters, by signaling that they're interested in voting for Lula, I think they're showing they don't believe Bolsonaro can give them that sort of basic security anymore. Certainly, depending on who you ask, some folks feel safer under the Bolsonaro administration, and some folks say they would feel safer under a Lula administration. I mean, Bolsonaro has dismantled protections for environmental defenders. Brazil is in the middle of a wave of assassinations of indigenous leaders and environmental defenders right now.

So, those are the kinds of folks who will say, “Under Bolsonaro and his policies, I don't feel safer.” Whereas some folks who are socially conservative say, “I don't want Lula because it means the left. It means education about gay rights in schools. And I don't want this.” And some of those fears have been purposefully overblown by campaigners on the right, not dissimilar to how the discussion about books and education in US schools has gone in recent years. But I think there's a difference. There's a clear difference in a feeling that Lula could deliver us something different because we're were dissatisfied with the current status quo.

HANNAH: Okay. So, if nobody gets a majority, this goes to a runoff. Is that right?

OSBORN: That's right. And I would say one thing we'll see is how many people decided to vote for Lula, even if he was not their candidate of choice. It's a real possibility that the election will finish in the first round, but it's not a given. In recent days, many fence-sitters have come out and said, “Vote for Lula in the first round because the bigger risk here is Bolsonaro.”

I would say there could be efforts to discredit the results. I would say one thing to watch is how other nations react to the results, because reacting quickly has been something that's guaranteed leaders staying put in the past, for better or for worse here. And in addition to that, just seeing what kind of language both of the candidates are using around the outcome.

HANNAH: That's helpful to hear. Can you imagine a world where there is a peaceful transition of power if Lula wins? And by peaceful, I mean without any violent protest.

OSBORN: If there is a peaceful transition of power, we can certainly credit part of it to Bolsonaro's fear of being tried and jailed, which he has spoken openly about. So, adding to the parallels with the United States, Bolsonaro has been watching all the prosecutions happening and all the investigations happening post-January 6th in the United States. And in recent days, including his pretty toned-down—for Bolsonaro—speech at the UN recently, he has turned down the temperature. And there's some speculation that he may be seeing a defeat coming, and he may be ready to accept it and try to avoid personal consequences in the future. And that's another reason why folks are watching the US quite a bit right now, to see if Trump is really going to be tried for this and have consequences because that can have ramifications here.

HANNAH: Can you just set the stage for us a little bit more about what it's like in Brazil right now? The right is beating up the left here in the United States around economic conditions, inflation, and such. What are the actual, specific policy issues that are getting discussed and debated right now between these two campaigns?

OSBORN: The inflation that's pummeling Latin America is certainly present here. Bolsonaro has put to use his full toolbox in the executive branch to dispense aid to low-income families and has upped that ahead of the election. So, it's actually prompted concerns that he's spending too much money. And this has alienated some of the financial community saying he's being fiscally irresponsible. So, he's put in emergency measures to sort of stave off the worst of the inflation. There's price support for gasoline—that kind of thing. But even so, economic issues are huge.

And Lula talks frequently about what it was like when he was president, and he says, “When I was president, you could have a barbecue on the weekend. You could have your chicken wing and your beer on the weekend.” He always talks about that, and he's really bringing to life this memory for working-class Brazilians. So, I would say certainly economic issues are a big issue.

And then actually, with the tone some of the debates have taken, women's rights has been a big issue in the election, because Bolsonaro has been criticized for a long time about how he refers to women. Just one example, he says, “If somebody has a girl, that's because they had a weak moment instead of having a son,” and all sorts of things like that. And he's lashed out at female journalists during the debates and been really criticized for that. So, one constituency that supported him when he was first elected and now supports him less is female Evangelical Christians. And part of that is because of the pandemic—they have said—and his management of the pandemic and the health emergency. And part of that is what he says about women.

So, economic issues, gender issues. And I would say, unfortunately, this whole conspiracy about Bolsonaro saying the election is on the brink of being stolen has gotten a lot of attention—and his raising red flags about, “The mainstream media is out to get me.” I went to a huge Bolsonaro rally, and talked to a bunch of supporters, and they all told me the press was lying. He was ahead in the polls, and if the electronic voting machines said Lula won, they would be ready to come out and protest. So, there's still a fair amount of that discourse going on. And part of that discourse is some very old-school scare discourse about the left, like, “He's a communist. It's going to turn into a Venezuela here,” that type of thing.

HANNAH: Okay. So, the Alliance for Progress is something you just mentioned. Remind us—what was that?

OSBORN: At the beginning of the Cold War, when the US was concerned Brazil could be going in a socialist direction or communist direction, the US invested money in social welfare programs in Brazil. They built public housing, and they also did some cultural programing where they spread pro-American cultural programing in Brazil—all of the Mickey Mouse cartoons like Donald Duck, Mickey. And if you go to a public housing project on the edge of Rio today, you can still see a tiny little Statue of Liberty there. It's a public housing complex called Vila Kennedy. And it was made under the John F. Kennedy administration. So, ever since then, US culture has enjoyed an influential reach here.

HANNAH: Joe Biden often talks about the power of our example rather than the example of our power. And it sounds like the power of our example was maybe more forcefully promoted with cultural diplomacy and other tactics in the 20th century. But do you think that example is still strong among Brazilians? Are they still keen on the United States, or are there other countries cutting into that popularity?

OSBORN: I think you'll find. Brazilian admirers of the US’ example on both sides of the political spectrum for different reasons. We've discussed a lot about the political right. If it's a voter who maybe is a feminist voter or maybe is somebody who is an anti-racist activist, there's quite a bit of following what's going on in US activism in that regard. There's quite a bit of people, even in the judicial and anti-corruption communities, who look at anti-corruption practices in the United States. And there's even been some cooperation on that front in the past. I think the US does not have a monopoly, by any means, on cultural influence in Brazil. There are Brazilians who look to Latin America. There's quite a bit of looking to Europe. Certainly among the academy, certainly among folks who watch movies and consume cultural products as well, there's a lot of looking to Europe as well.

But I would say that when Joe Biden talks about the power of our example, that example is still strong in lots of different ways in Brazil. And Brazilians will continue to interpret all kinds of political movements from the United States. And again, I think it's very interesting to see, in this case, Brazilian civil society representatives who were worried about this election actually traveled to Washington and met with people in Congress ahead of this election. And the US Congress made a big deal to the White House about saying this election matters. Defending democracy in Brazil matters.

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OSBORN: It was actually a full-circle loop. It wasn't only that the US is doing something, and they have cultural influence in Brazil. It was that there's a channel open between both countries which goes both ways. And civil society people in both countries are learning from each other, exchanging information, exchanging messages, promoting values, and in this case promoting the value of elections with integrity and understanding that's not a given. Sometimes you have to defend that and speak up about it and coordinate. So, I think cultural cooperation is not just something one is copying the other, but sometimes both are even working together.

HANNAH: America's image, for better or worse, has been influential in Brazil. We just put out a survey here at the Eurasia Group Foundation which found Brazilians continue to look favorably on American democracy.

OSBORN: Brazil, like the United States, has experienced democratic backsliding, and it's also worked against democratic backsliding. And I think when I talk to Brazilians who admire democratic values in America and in other countries, they acknowledge democracy is something you have to work for and defend. And when I hear them being inspired by folks in the United States, it's usually the kind of work to shore up democratic institutions. And so, while all the tensions surrounding this election in Brazil are certainly an example of modern, contemporary democratic backsliding, it's also a big example of folks who have pushed back and said, “Whoa. We don't want to go in this direction anymore.” And in that way, the United States and Brazil are parallel in that regard. And there's conversations that are open between both countries—again, we've talked about the military level—at the political level and also at the civil society level that want to keep moving that forward.

HANNAH: I do wonder also about the power of our example—is it more in the democratic values and freedoms, or does it have to do more with things related to American prosperity and culture? And the reason I ask is because we did ask a question in our survey or asked follow-up questions about why you think the United States, as the world's leading power, would be better for my country, and Brazilians—the plurality said, “Because the United States sets a good example for national development for my country.” So, it seemed really focused on what the US was able to achieve economically.

OSBORN: Yeah. I think there's a bit of this, like a potential immigrant's vision of the United States—everyone's rich in the United States; there's a lot of prosperity there. But I think Brazilians understand you gain legitimacy as a government if you can provide economic security. I think we're seeing that in this election right now. Lula, for all of his faults and for all of the reasons why people criticize him, has, at the end of the day, legitimacy with voters because of that economic security under his administration. So, I think it's fair to say a lot of Brazilians understand democracy that works is also democracy that provides a material standard of living and takes care of your basic needs.

HANNAH: Final question. Identity politics looms large in the United States. Obviously, the political ideologies of Bolsonaro and Lula couldn't be more different. You've got Bolsonaro, who’s very command and control, on the one hand. Lula is a bit more of co-operative collectivist. You've got a free market versus more redistributive policies. The style and the substance of their politics are very different. But Brazil, in addition to being other things, is also a very multiracial country. And so, to what extent are racial—or is race playing a role in the different election campaigns’ appeals?

OSBORN: Brazil has the largest Black population in the Americas. More enslaved Africans were brought to the city of Rio than to the United States as a whole. So, it's a huge issue here. Racial politics is a huge issue here. And I would say perhaps the fact that Bolsonaro hasn't said anything about it this election reflects that he understands it's a vulnerability for him—the fact that in the past he's made a lot of racist statements. I think perhaps his silence on this issue during this election reflects the growth of the Black movement here, the increasingly outspoken nature. And it's a big issue. Just this year, we have the ten-year anniversary of quotas, which is government-required affirmative action in schools and government jobs. And at the time, that was something Bolsonaro heavily campaigned against. And I would say those questions about racism and race relations will continue to be a big issue in Brazilian politics. Right now, it's playing to Lula's favor in the sense that his administration promoted more policies for Black Brazilians, and they're increasingly politically vocal. I think that's playing in his favor right now.

HANNAH: I'm Mark Hannah, and this has been another episode of None of the Above, a podcast of the Eurasia Group Foundation. Thanks to Catherine for joining us today from Rio.

As always, thanks also go to the None of the Above team who make all of this possible. Thank you to our producer, Caroline Gray, or associate producer and editor, Sarah Leeson, and for research, writing and archival support from Lucas Robinson. If you enjoyed what you've heard, do subscribe to us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or anywhere else you find podcasts. Rate and review us. If there's a topic you want us to cover, send us an email at info@noneoftheabovepodcast.org. Tell your friends.

Thanks so much for listening, and we'll catch you next time.

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